Tesla Model 3 Australian pricing estimate

[EVangelist]

On a wet Sunday what better thing to do than put into a spreadsheet the US and Oz pricing for all the various Tesla models and try to reverse engineer what the Model 3 will retail at when it makes it here in (hopefully) early 2018.

This chart simply maps retail price in USA in US dollars to retail price here in AUD and interestingly produces a nice straight line.  AUS pricing used includes import costs, luxury car tax and stamp duty, but does not include initial registration and CTP (around $1k in NSW).



Using the trendline to estimate what the base Model 3 ($35k in USA) would retail at here produces the answer: $50,610.  At that price, there is no LCT so the components are a list price of $48,980 plus $1630 stamp duty.

That's a bit lower than I expected, and if it comes in around there, it will be an extremely competitive offering!

All the usual caveats apply...

[chuq]

I'd be thrilled if it was that cheap! I'm a reservation holder and I plan to get the bare standard (no supercharging, no autopilot, no smart air suspension, no premium interior). The exception would be possibly dual motors - that will add a few thousand onto it. If the starting price was at the $60k end it would be getting close to out of my range

[EVangelist]

Sept 19, 2016 20:53:22 GMT 11 chuq said:

I'd be thrilled if it was that cheap!

Indeed so would I - it seems hard to believe but that's what the straight line tells us.  So maybe in reality it won't be a straight line

Putting into the formula Elon Musk's prediction that the "average sale price" in the US will be around $42k (which most on the Tesla forums think means dual motor with a larger battery and possibly supercharging included) yields an Oz retail price (before rego and CTP) of $64,650.

All will be revealed late next year I reckon.

[unclewoja]

Unfortunately your graph doesn't take into account LCT here in Australia. That's in our favour though, as it would make the Model 3 even cheaper than your graph. Currently, every Tesla sold in Aus has an LCT component. The base Model 3 would not.

Approximate LCT percentage is between 9.5% for the cheapest Tesla on your graph and 21% for the most expensive Tesla on your graph. Because your graph includes LCT, by a little bit of mental extrapolation, you're estimate would be over by approximately 3%-5%... that would make the estimated base price about $47,500, $46k if you take into account the $1,500 already paid.