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Post by EVangelist on Nov 16, 2015 12:54:15 GMT 11
At the recent Model X launch and subsequent interviews, Elon Musk indicated the US$35,000 (forecasted) Tesla Model 3 will be unveiled in March 2016, with orders (reservations) starting then, and deliveries from "late 2017" which I would assume means for the RHD version, deliveries from mid 2018.
That's unfortunately quite a wait for impatient folk like me who want to replace their family sedan with a long range EV. One of the constraints for Tesla is having battery supply in sufficient quantities for a mass-market EV, hence "fully operational Gigafactory needed" according to Musk's tweet.
So to get rid of my gas-guzzler I'd probably need to buy a second hand Volt to tide me over for 3 years. Not ideal but perhaps better than the alternatives. I found just one on carsales (in WA!) but considering how few Volts were sold here I suspect second-hand ones would be very rare.
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Post by gabzimiev on Nov 16, 2015 12:57:57 GMT 11
how much are you looking to spend ? I get emails alerts from carsales.
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Post by EVangelist on Nov 16, 2015 13:08:46 GMT 11
how much are you looking to spend ? I get emails alerts from carsales. Yeah I should sign up for that. I'd probably spend up to $50k to consign the gas-guzzler to history. The Volt in WA has done 24,000km and selling for $39k which seems a reasonable deal given the cars were over $60k new. But I'd have to get it transported to Sydney and would be purchasing without a drive test. And Volts are only 4-seaters not 5. Second option is hope and pray Gen 3 Leaf comes to Oz in 2016. |
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Post by gabzimiev on Nov 16, 2015 13:16:16 GMT 11
in that price range there is the outlander PHEV. just driven that 600km over the weekend. worth considering ?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2015 20:38:07 GMT 11
Evangelist would this bother you forums.aeva.asn.au/a-closer-look-at-the-volt-rcd-tripping-issue_topic3787.htmlpersonally if I had a choice between volt n outlander I would take the outlander unless Chevy/GM/Holden fix the alleged Earth Leakage issue. Seems that Bob Gell from Gelco Services says that GM knows about this issue from 2-3 years ago but hasn't done anything about it. Audi's volt is the a3 etron, but seems from a review that one doesn't know if the front cover is open; like having your fly open; now I can't find that article  |
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Post by EVangelist on Nov 16, 2015 22:37:18 GMT 11
in that price range there is the outlander PHEV. just driven that 600km over the weekend. worth considering ? It is an option but not super-high on the list. I just don't like SUVs much, and my wife likes them even less. BUT there have been times when the ability to transport >5 people would be very handy. And if I was ever to get an SUV, it would either be Tesla X or possibly the Outlander PHEV. Food for thought... |
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Post by EVangelist on Nov 16, 2015 22:41:04 GMT 11
Just to clarify... I can't actually afford a Tesla X, and even if I had that much money, I could never remotely justify spending that kind of cash on a car. To me the idea of spending > $100k on a vehicle is a bit obscene, even if you're rich.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2015 7:52:55 GMT 11
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Post by EVangelist on Nov 17, 2015 8:52:39 GMT 11
Evangelist would this bother you forums.aeva.asn.au/a-closer-look-at-the-volt-rcd-tripping-issue_topic3787.htmlpersonally if I had a choice between volt n outlander I would take the outlander unless Chevy/GM/Holden fix the alleged Earth Leakage issue. Seems that Bob Gell from Gelco Services says that GM knows about this issue from 2-3 years ago but hasn't done anything about it. Audi's volt is the a3 etron, but seems from a review that one doesn't know if the front cover is open; like having your fly open; now I can't find that article Thanks for the advice... I am being so impatient wanting an EV that does it all! |
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Post by southernvolt on Nov 18, 2015 23:19:44 GMT 11
At the recent Model X launch and subsequent interviews, Elon Musk indicated the US$35,000 (forecasted) Tesla Model 3 will be unveiled in March 2016, with orders (reservations) starting then, and deliveries from "late 2017" which I would assume means for the RHD version, deliveries from mid 2018. That's unfortunately quite a wait for impatient folk like me who want to replace their family sedan with a long range EV. One of the constraints for Tesla is having battery supply in sufficient quantities for a mass-market EV, hence "fully operational Gigafactory needed" according to Musk's tweet. So to get rid of my gas-guzzler I'd probably need to buy a second hand Volt to tide me over for 3 years. Not ideal but perhaps better than the alternatives. I found just one on carsales (in WA!) but considering how few Volts were sold here I suspect second-hand ones would be very rare. It was two years and five months from the delivery of the first Model S's in the US to the SIG deliveries here. now the first Xs have been delivered in teh US we can time the lag between there and here. I am betting on around 2 years. The 3 is being launched next March, maybe. Deliveries, who knows? But let's say they start delivering to US customers a year later which is in likely, then we're looking at mid 2018 for the 3 down here. But I'd really expect it's more likely to be 2019. So if you can wait 5 years then good luck. Much as I love Tesla, both Company and car I think we'll probably have options from other companies by then. Hyundai is supposed to bring out a 400 km EV in 2017 for instance. |
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Post by EVangelist on Nov 19, 2015 16:06:30 GMT 11
It was two years and five months from the delivery of the first Model S's in the US to the SIG deliveries here. now the first Xs have been delivered in teh US we can time the lag between there and here. I am betting on around 2 years. The 3 is being launched next March, maybe. Deliveries, who knows? But let's say they start delivering to US customers a year later which is in likely, then we're looking at mid 2018 for the 3 down here. But I'd really expect it's more likely to be 2019. So if you can wait 5 years then good luck. Much as I love Tesla, both Company and car I think we'll probably have options from other companies by then. Hyundai is supposed to bring out a 400 km EV in 2017 for instance. I'm not quite as pessimistic - Tesla have been steadily ramping up their production capability, so the first X's here I would expect around 12-18 months (i.e. late 2016 / early 2017). But the 3 will be a significant challenge, going to full mass market production. Lots of things could go wrong, or, they will have learnt a lot from the S and X and not have too many bumps. Time will tell. |
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Post by jacky on Nov 19, 2015 19:14:45 GMT 11
It was two years and five months from the delivery of the first Model S's in the US to the SIG deliveries here. now the first Xs have been delivered in teh US we can time the lag between there and here. I am betting on around 2 years. The 3 is being launched next March, maybe. Deliveries, who knows? But let's say they start delivering to US customers a year later which is in likely, then we're looking at mid 2018 for the 3 down here. But I'd really expect it's more likely to be 2019. So if you can wait 5 years then good luck. Much as I love Tesla, both Company and car I think we'll probably have options from other companies by then. Hyundai is supposed to bring out a 400 km EV in 2017 for instance. I'm not quite as pessimistic - Tesla have been steadily ramping up their production capability, so the first X's here I would expect around 12-18 months (i.e. late 2016 / early 2017). But the 3 will be a significant challenge, going to full mass market production. Lots of things could go wrong, or, they will have learnt a lot from the S and X and not have too many bumps. Time will tell. I think many people knows Tesla produces great cars but it is simply too expensive for them. I am expecting there will be a lot of back order for Model 3. Given the very weak AUD, I hope the deposit for a reserve won't be too high. |
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Post by electricwombat1 on Jan 12, 2016 10:00:04 GMT 11
I am guessing the Aussie dollar price for a Tesla 3 to still be around $70,000 - given the $$ difference, export costs, and so on? Is that too pessimistic?
Though even the Outlander PHEV is $52k Gee its expensive being green!
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Post by hieronymous on Jan 12, 2016 13:54:58 GMT 11
And that's not all. The commercial chargepoint provider here (charge.net) has announced a 4 year programme to put 100 or so quick chargers from one end of the country to the other - well and good.
I drove to Wellington for Xmas, 665 km each way, so I calculated what that would have cost me in the Leaf, with charge.net's rates being 25 cent/minute + 25 cents/KWh. If I used 100 KWh each way (6.65km/KWh) and charged 7 times for 25 minutes (175 minutes), approx. 14KWh each time, then cost each way would be $68.75. At 85kph the trip would take 9 hours + 3 hours charging at best. That's a long day.
My problem with this estimate is that I did the trip in my Prius, had 1 stop for food and took 9.5 hours total, and the fuel cost was $50 each way.
So you might end up paying a premium both on purchase price and travel costs other than local. Running the Leaf from home is dirt cheap only because of residential power prices.
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Post by Jim Hare on Jan 14, 2016 19:00:27 GMT 11
Sorry, just trying to work out the math here. Are you saying charge.net charges $10 per quick charge? And that's not all. The commercial chargepoint provider here (charge.net) has announced a 4 year programme to put 100 or so quick chargers from one end of the country to the other - well and good. I drove to Wellington for Xmas, 665 km each way, so I calculated what that would have cost me in the Leaf, with charge.net's rates being 25 cent/km + 25 cents/KWh. If I used 100 KWh each way (6.65km/KWh) and charged 7 times for 25 minutes (175 minutes), approx. 14KWh each time, then cost each way would be $68.75. At 85kph the trip would take 9 hours + 3 hours charging at best. That's a long day. My problem with this estimate is that I did the trip in my Prius, had 1 stop for food and took 9.5 hours total, and the fuel cost was $50 each way. So you might end up paying a premium both on purchase price and travel costs other than local. Running the Leaf from home is dirt cheap only because of residential power prices. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 19:23:28 GMT 11
looks like it 25 min * 0.25 c/min = $6.25 14kwh * 0.25 c/kWh = $3.50 (edit) total $9.75 (edit) charge.net.nz/ev-owner-faqs/" Rapid chargers are extremely expensive to purchase and install. When you charge using our network you are paying for (a) the use of the machine and (b) the electricity supplied. Our current rates are: 25c / minute + 25c / kWh. " may not be too bad when compared with kangaroo island max capped price of $16.85 www.kangarooisland.sa.gov.au/e-vehicle |
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Post by hieronymous on Jan 14, 2016 19:34:48 GMT 11
Sorry, just trying to work out the math here. Are you saying charge.net charges $10 per quick charge? Hi Jim Have just corrected an error - charge.net costs 25 cents/ minute + 25 cents/KWh. So if I charged for 25 minutes, and put in a bit over 14 KWh (from LBW to 80% approx.), that would cost 25x$0.25 + 14x$0.25 = $9.75. And I would need to do that 7 times for the trip I outlined. So while I charge at home for a net 20c/KWh, out on the highway it will be more like 70c/KWh, which is a bit sad  And that's not all. The commercial chargepoint provider here (charge.net) has announced a 4 year programme to put 100 or so quick chargers from one end of the country to the other - well and good. I drove to Wellington for Xmas, 665 km each way, so I calculated what that would have cost me in the Leaf, with charge.net's rates being 25 cent/minute + 25 cents/KWh. If I used 100 KWh each way (6.65km/KWh) and charged 7 times for 25 minutes (175 minutes), approx. 14KWh each time, then cost each way would be $68.75. At 85kph the trip would take 9 hours + 3 hours charging at best. That's a long day. My problem with this estimate is that I did the trip in my Prius, had 1 stop for food and took 9.5 hours total, and the fuel cost was $50 each way. So you might end up paying a premium both on purchase price and travel costs other than local. Running the Leaf from home is dirt cheap only because of residential power prices. |
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Post by southernvolt on Jan 23, 2016 10:24:00 GMT 11
Tesla has posted that they are producing ~250 model x's per week now. Not many. I seem to remember there are many, many thousands of pre-orders for the X. So I reckon we're 2 years away from even filling the X pre-orders. End 2017 my guess for the X hitting the Aussie shores.
March launch of the 3 supposedly still happening so I'm putting my money on mid 2019 for the 3 in OZ.
Not being pessimistic, just trying to follow the math. Brighter note there will be lots of $70,000 used model X's available and a lease or longish loan on that sort of money might be doable for some.
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Post by EVangelist on Jan 29, 2016 18:09:14 GMT 11
March launch of the 3 supposedly still happening so I'm putting my money on mid 2019 for the 3 in OZ. Musk has apparently confirmed late March launch of the Model 3 via tweet (I'm not on twitter tho). Preorders will be taken immediately after launch. The first preorders though might be for the "signature edition" of the 3 (if the X launch is any guide), which means larger deposits. After the unveil, Tesla plans to deliver Model 3 to customers by the end of 2017. But I would guess that is LHD version only. Add 6 months minimum for RHD version. I am very tempted to put down a deposit, but my estimate is mid to late 2018 for the 3 in Oz. Not as pessimistic as southernvolt's estimate, although Tesla does have form in over-promising and under-delivering time-wise. I don't know if I can wait that long. |
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Post by southernvolt on Feb 10, 2016 9:23:40 GMT 11
March launch of the 3 supposedly still happening so I'm putting my money on mid 2019 for the 3 in OZ. Musk has apparently confirmed late March launch of the Model 3 via tweet (I'm not on twitter tho). Preorders will be taken immediately after launch. The first preorders though might be for the "signature edition" of the 3 (if the X launch is any guide), which means larger deposits. After the unveil, Tesla plans to deliver Model 3 to customers by the end of 2017. But I would guess that is LHD version only. Add 6 months minimum for RHD version. I am very tempted to put down a deposit, but my estimate is mid to late 2018 for the 3 in Oz. Not as pessimistic as southernvolt's estimate, although Tesla does have form in over-promising and under-delivering time-wise. I don't know if I can wait that long. I'm hoping we get to see the car at the March launch but there was a little glitch in something Elon said the other day which has been reported as him laying down the possibility that there would be photos only at the March launch . Possibly we are mis-interpreting what he said though and there will be a vehicle, and photos from then on. But it's a bit worrying. The biggest dependency is the battery factory. For Tesla to ramp up and sell the 100s of thousand of the Model 3 to meet demand they will need a S#*%load of batteries. |
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Post by jake on May 29, 2016 17:11:47 GMT 11
We should all thank Elon Musk very much for the development of the Model 3. Because of the hype created by this car, all the major car manufacturers are all scrambling to build their own Model 3 competitors. When our Leafs wear out, we will be spoilt for choice on long range electric cars. I'm excited.
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Post by hieronymous on Jun 1, 2016 13:32:46 GMT 11
We should all thank Elon Musk very much for the development of the Model 3. Because of the hype created by this car, all the major car manufacturers are all scrambling to build their own Model 3 competitors. When our Leafs wear out, we will be spoilt for choice on long range electric cars. I'm excited. Maybe the latter paragraphs of this this will dampen your enthusiasm a little... |
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Post by EVangelist on Jun 1, 2016 15:35:17 GMT 11
It's no secret that Tesla bit off more than it could chew with the gimmicks in Model X. Elon let the tech geek in him get away, wanting to add more and more "cool stuff" to the Model X, and has admitted as much. It not only led the Model X to be horribly late, but also to these lingering issues. Also the later production runs had much better build quality as they resolved the various issues. Tesla have learnt their lesson, and the Model 3 has been designed for simplicity and ease of manufacture. There will be no mechanical gimmickry in it. Normal doors, manual door handles, normal boot front and back, etc. Any gimmicks will be software hence remotely upgradable if it's not quite right. |
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Post by hieronymous on Jun 1, 2016 16:36:00 GMT 11
No reaction to the last two paragraphs?
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Post by Phoebe on Jun 1, 2016 18:06:10 GMT 11
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Post by EVangelist on Jun 1, 2016 23:14:39 GMT 11
No reaction to the last two paragraphs? No. There's been a lot of debate on the Tesla foums ever since the reveal as to what Elon exactly meant by saying Model 3 would have supercharging as "standard". Did that mean supercharging hardware in the car would be standard? Or that supercharger access for life would also be included as standard? The debates got very heated trying to read EM's tealeaves! My interpretation of what he said and what appeared on the Tesla website was the hardware would be standard but that recharging for life would not be included in the price of the car. That's been confirmed. And it makes sense to me. The car is half the price of the Model S and they hope to sell at least half a million of them. It would be economically unsustainable for Tesla to provide free charging for every car it builds forever - indeed if we want Telsa to survive then it needs to make prudent and sustainable business decisions. So it doesn't change my view on Model 3 or my desire to own one. In 2018 when I get the car, I can make a judgment then (or sometime later) whether I want to activate supercharger access (just an over the air software toggle!), depending on whether it is a one-off lifetime fee, or whether there will be "pay per use" or other pricing models. Or whether by then the independent DCFC network is good enough to not use Tesla's superchargers at all (unlikely, but who knows!). Given I don't drive long distances often, pay per use would probably be the best option for me. |
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Post by jake on Jun 2, 2016 0:34:43 GMT 11
I am surprised that free charging exists quite frankly and I think its days are numbered. The charge will still be a lot cheaper than petrol and they are entitled to some money for providing expensive infrastructure.
I'm not hung up on the Model 3. I doubt the car will be ready by 2018. What I love is that Tesla have spurred many manufacturers to make long range electric cars. I'm keeping my powder dry. In the meantime I will enjoy the wonderful electric car I already have.
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